Monday, February 03, 2014

A Time for Choosing by Ronald Reagan October 27, 1964

A Time for Choosing

by Ronald Reagan

October 27, 1964





Thank you very much. Thank you and good evening. The sponsor has been identified, but unlike most television programs, the performer hasn't been provided with a script. As a matter of fact, I have been permitted to choose my own ideas regarding the choice that we face in the next few weeks.

I have spent most of my life as a Democrat. I recently have seen fit to follow another course. I believe that the issues confronting us cross party lines. Now, one side in this campaign has been telling us that the issues of this election are the maintenance of peace and prosperity. The line has been used "We've never had it so good."

But I have an uncomfortable feeling that this prosperity isn't something on which we can base our hopes for the future. No nation in history has ever survived a tax burden that reached a third of its national income. Today, 37 cents of every dollar earned in this country is the tax collector's share, and yet our government continues to spend $17 million a day more than the government takes in. We haven't balanced our budget 28 out of the last 34 years. We have raised our debt limit three times in the last twelve months, and now our national debt is one and a half times bigger than all the combined debts of all the nations in the world. We have $15 billion in gold in our treasury--we don't own an ounce. Foreign dollar claims are $27.3 billion, and we have just had announced that the dollar of 1939 will now purchase 45 cents in its total value.

As for the peace that we would preserve, I wonder who among us would like to approach the wife or mother whose husband or son has died in South Vietnam and ask them if they think this is a peace that should be maintained indefinitely. Do they mean peace, or do they mean we just want to be left in peace? There can be no real peace while one American is dying some place in the world for the rest of us. We are at war with the most dangerous enemy that has ever faced mankind in his long climb from the swamp to the stars, and it has been said if we lose that war, and in doing so lose this way of freedom of ours, history will record with the greatest astonishment that those who had the most to lose did the least to prevent its happening. Well, I think it's time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that were intended for us by the Founding Fathers.

Not too long ago two friends of mine were talking to a Cuban refugee, a businessman who had escaped from Castro, and in the midst of his story one of my friends turned to the other and said, "We don't know how lucky we are." And the Cuban stopped and said, "How lucky you are! I had someplace to escape to." In that sentence he told us the entire story. If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth. And this idea that government is beholden to the people, that it has no other source of power except to sovereign people, is still the newest and most unique idea in all the long history of man's relation to man. This is the issue of this election. Whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the American revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capital can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves.

You and I are told increasingly that we have to choose between a left or right, but I would like to suggest that there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down--up to a man's age-old dream, the ultimate in individual freedom consistent with law and order--or down to the ant heap totalitarianism, and regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would trade our freedom for security have embarked on this downward course.

In this vote-harvesting time, they use terms like the "Great Society," or as we were told a few days ago by the President, we must accept a "greater government activity in the affairs of the people." But they have been a little more explicit in the past and among themselves--and all of the things that I now will quote have appeared in print. These are not Republican accusations. For example, they have voices that say "the cold war will end through acceptance of a not undemocratic socialism." Another voice says that the profit motive has become outmoded, it must be replaced by the incentives of the welfare state; or our traditional system of individual freedom is incapable of solving the complex problems of the 20th century. Senator Fullbright has said at Stanford University that the Constitution is outmoded. He referred to the president as our moral teacher and our leader, and he said he is hobbled in his task by the restrictions in power imposed on him by this antiquated document. He must be freed so that he can do for us what he knows is best. And Senator Clark of Pennsylvania, another articulate spokesman, defines liberalism as "meeting the material needs of the masses through the full power of centralized government." Well, I for one resent it when a representative of the people refers to you and me--the free man and woman of this country--as "the masses." This is a term we haven't applied to ourselves in America. But beyond that, "the full power of centralized government"--this was the very thing the Founding Fathers sought to minimize. They knew that governments don't control things. A government can't control the economy without controlling people. And they know when a government sets out to do that, it must use force and coercion to achieve its purpose. They also knew, those Founding Fathers, that outside of its legitimate functions, government does nothing as well or as economically as the private sector of the economy.

Now, we have no better example of this than the government's involvement in the farm economy over the last 30 years. Since 1955, the cost of this program has nearly doubled. One-fourth of farming in America is responsible for 85% of the farm surplus. Three-fourths of farming is out on the free market and has known a 21% increase in the per capita consumption of all its produce. You see, that one-fourth of farming is regulated and controlled by the federal government. In the last three years we have spent $43 in feed grain program for every bushel of corn we don't grow.

Senator Humphrey last week charged that Barry Goldwater as President would seek to eliminate farmers. He should do his homework a little better, because he will find out that we have had a decline of 5 million in the farm population under these government programs. He will also find that the Democratic administration has sought to get from Congress an extension of the farm program to include that three-fourths that is now free. He will find that they have also asked for the right to imprison farmers who wouldn't keep books as prescribed by the federal government. The Secretary of Agriculture asked for the right to seize farms through condemnation and resell them to other individuals. And contained in that same program was a provision that would have allowed the federal government to remove 2 million farmers from the soil.

At the same time, there has been an increase in the Department of Agriculture employees. There is now one for every 30 farms in the United States, and still they can't tell us how 66 shiploads of grain headed for Austria disappeared without a trace and Billie Sol Estes never left shore.

Every responsible farmer and farm organization has repeatedly asked the government to free the farm economy, but who are farmers to know what is best for them? The wheat farmers voted against a wheat program. The government passed it anyway. Now the price of bread goes up; the price of wheat to the farmer goes down.

Meanwhile, back in the city, under urban renewal the assault on freedom carries on. Private property rights are so diluted that public interest is almost anything that a few government planners decide it should be. In a program that takes for the needy and gives to the greedy, we see such spectacles as in Cleveland, Ohio, a million-and-a-half-dollar building completed only three years ago must be destroyed to make way for what government officials call a "more compatible use of the land." The President tells us he is now going to start building public housing units in the thousands where heretofore we have only built them in the hundreds. But FHA and the Veterans Administration tell us that they have 120,000 housing units they've taken back through mortgage foreclosures. For three decades, we have sought to solve the problems of unemployment through government planning, and the more the plans fail, the more the planners plan. The latest is the Area Redevelopment Agency. They have just declared Rice County, Kansas, a depressed area. Rice County, Kansas, has two hundred oil wells, and the 14,000 people there have over $30 million on deposit in personal savings in their banks. When the government tells you you're depressed, lie down and be depressed.

We have so many people who can't see a fat man standing beside a thin one without coming to the conclusion that the fat man got that way by taking advantage of the thin one. So they are going to solve all the problems of human misery through government and government planning. Well, now, if government planning and welfare had the answer and they've had almost 30 years of it, shouldn't we expect government to almost read the score to us once in a while? Shouldn't they be telling us about the decline each year in the number of people needing help? The reduction in the need for public housing?

But the reverse is true. Each year the need grows greater, the program grows greater. We were told four years ago that 17 million people went to bed hungry each night. Well, that was probably true. They were all on a diet. But now we are told that 9.3 million families in this country are poverty-stricken on the basis of earning less than $3,000 a year. Welfare spending is 10 times greater than in the dark depths of the Depression. We are spending $45 billion on welfare. Now do a little arithmetic, and you will find that if we divided the $45 billion up equally among those 9 million poor families, we would be able to give each family $4,600 a year, and this added to their present income should eliminate poverty! Direct aid to the poor, however, is running only about $600 per family. It would seem that someplace there must be some overhead.

So now we declare "war on poverty," or "you, too, can be a Bobby Baker!" Now, do they honestly expect us to believe that if we add $1 billion to the $45 million we are spending...one more program to the 30-odd we have--and remember, this new program doesn't replace any, it just duplicates existing programs--do they believe that poverty is suddenly going to disappear by magic? Well, in all fairness I should explain that there is one part of the new program that isn't duplicated. This is the youth feature. We are now going to solve the dropout problem, juvenile delinquency, by reinstituting something like the old CCC camps, and we are going to put our young people in camps, but again we do some arithmetic, and we find that we are going to spend each year just on room and board for each young person that we help $4,700 a year! We can send them to Harvard for $2,700! Don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting that Harvard is the answer to juvenile delinquency.

But seriously, what are we doing to those we seek to help? Not too long ago, a judge called me here in Los Angeles. He told me of a young woman who had come before him for a divorce. She had six children, was pregnant with her seventh. Under his questioning, she revealed her husband was a laborer earning $250 a month. She wanted a divorce so that she could get an $80 raise. She is eligible for $330 a month in the Aid to Dependent Children Program. She got the idea from two women in her neighborhood who had already done that very thing.

Yet anytime you and I question the schemes of the do-gooders, we are denounced as being against their humanitarian goals. They say we are always "against" things, never "for" anything. Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so. We are for a provision that destitution should not follow unemployment by reason of old age, and to that end we have accepted Social Security as a step toward meeting the problem.

But we are against those entrusted with this program when they practice deception regarding its fiscal shortcomings, when they charge that any criticism of the program means that we want to end payments to those who depend on them for livelihood. They have called it insurance to us in a hundred million pieces of literature. But then they appeared before the Supreme Court and they testified that it was a welfare program. They only use the term "insurance" to sell it to the people. And they said Social Security dues are a tax for the general use of the government, and the government has used that tax. There is no fund, because Robert Byers, the actuarial head, appeared before a congressional committee and admitted that Social Security as of this moment is $298 billion in the hole. But he said there should be no cause for worry because as long as they have the power to tax, they could always take away from the people whatever they needed to bail them out of trouble! And they are doing just that.

A young man, 21 years of age, working at an average salary...his Social Security contribution would, in the open market, buy him an insurance policy that would guarantee $220 a month at age 65. The government promises $127. He could live it up until he is 31 and then take out a policy that would pay more than Social Security. Now, are we so lacking in business sense that we can't put this program on a sound basis so that people who do require those payments will find that they can get them when they are due...that the cupboard isn't bare? Barry Goldwater thinks we can.

At the same time, can't we introduce voluntary features that would permit a citizen who can do better on his own to be excused upon presentation of evidence that he had made provisions for the non-earning years? Should we allow a widow with children to work, and not lose the benefits supposedly paid for by her deceased husband? Shouldn't you and I be allowed to declare who our beneficiaries will be under these programs, which we cannot do? I think we are for telling our senior citizens that no one in this country should be denied medical care because of a lack of funds. But I think we are against forcing all citizens, regardless of need, into a compulsory government program, especially when we have such examples, as announced last week, when France admitted that their Medicare program was now bankrupt. They've come to the end of the road.

In addition, was Barry Goldwater so irresponsible when he suggested that our government give up its program of deliberate planned inflation so that when you do get your Social Security pension, a dollar will buy a dollar's worth, and not 45 cents' worth?

I think we are for an international organization, where the nations of the world can seek peace. But I think we are against subordinating American interests to an organization that has become so structurally unsound that today you can muster a two-thirds vote on the floor of the General Assembly among the nations that represent less than 10 percent of the world's population. I think we are against the hypocrisy of assailing our allies because here and there they cling to a colony, while we engage in a conspiracy of silence and never open our mouths about the millions of people enslaved in Soviet colonies in the satellite nation.

I think we are for aiding our allies by sharing of our material blessings with those nations which share in our fundamental beliefs, but we are against doling out money government to government, creating bureaucracy, if not socialism, all over the world. We set out to help 19 countries. We are helping 107. We spent $146 billion. With that money, we bought a $2 million yacht for Haile Selassie. We bought dress suits for Greek undertakers, extra wives for Kenyan government officials. We bought a thousand TV sets for a place where they have no electricity. In the last six years, 52 nations have bought $7 billion worth of our gold, and all 52 are receiving foreign aid from this country.

No government ever voluntarily reduces itself in size. Government programs, once launched, never disappear. Actually, a government bureau is the nearest thing to eternal life we'll ever see on this Earth. Federal employees number 2.5 million, and federal, state, and local, one out of six of the nation's work force is employed by the government. These proliferating bureaus with their thousands of regulations have cost us many of our constitutional safeguards. How many of us realize that today federal agents can invade a man's property without a warrant? They can impose a fine without a formal hearing, let alone a trial by jury, and they can seize and sell his property in auction to enforce the payment of that fine. In Chico County, Arkansas, James Wier overplanted his rice allotment. The government obtained a $17,000 judgment, and a U.S. marshal sold his 950-acre farm at auction. The government said it was necessary as a warning to others to make the system work. Last February 19 at the University of Minnesota, Norman Thomas, six-time candidate for President on the Socialist Party ticket, said, "If Barry Goldwater became President, he would stop the advance of socialism in the United States." I think that's exactly what he will do.

As a former Democrat, I can tell you Norman Thomas isn't the only man who has drawn this parallel to socialism with the present administration. Back in 1936, Mr. Democrat himself, Al Smith, the great American, came before the American people and charged that the leadership of his party was taking the part of Jefferson, Jackson, and Cleveland down the road under the banners of Marx, Lenin, and Stalin. And he walked away from his party, and he never returned to the day he died, because to this day, the leadership of that party has been taking that party, that honorable party, down the road in the image of the labor socialist party of England. Now it doesn't require expropriation or confiscation of private property or business to impose socialism on a people. What does it mean whether you hold the deed or the title to your business or property if the government holds the power of life and death over that business or property? Such machinery already exists. The government can find some charge to bring against any concern it chooses to prosecute. Every businessman has his own tale of harassment. Somewhere a perversion has taken place. Our natural, inalienable rights are now considered to be a dispensation of government, and freedom has never been so fragile, so close to slipping from our grasp as it is at this moment. Our Democratic opponents seem unwilling to debate these issues. They want to make you and I believe that this is a contest between two men...that we are to choose just between two personalities.

Well, what of this man that they would destroy? And in destroying, they would destroy that which he represents, the ideas that you and I hold dear. Is he the brash and shallow and trigger-happy man they say he is? Well, I have been privileged to know him "when." I knew him long before he ever dreamed of trying for high office, and I can tell you personally I have never known a man in my life I believe so incapable of doing a dishonest or dishonorable thing.

This is a man who in his own business, before he entered politics, instituted a profit-sharing plan, before unions had ever thought of it. He put in health and medical insurance for all his employees. He took 50 percent of the profits before taxes and set up a retirement program, a pension plan for all his employees. He sent checks for life to an employee who was ill and couldn't work. He provided nursing care for the children of mothers who work in the stores. When Mexico was ravaged by floods from the Rio Grande, he climbed in his airplane and flew medicine and supplies down there.

An ex-GI told me how he met him. It was the week before Christmas during the Korean War, and he was at the Los Angeles airport trying to get a ride home to Arizona for Christmas, and he said that there were a lot of servicemen there and no seats available on the planes. Then a voice came over the loudspeaker and said, "Any men in uniform wanting a ride to Arizona, go to runway such-and-such," and they went down there, and there was this fellow named Barry Goldwater sitting in his plane. Every day in the weeks before Christmas, all day long, he would load up the plane, fly to Arizona, fly them to their homes, then fly back over to get another load.

During the hectic split-second timing of a campaign, this is a man who took time out to sit beside an old friend who was dying of cancer. His campaign managers were understandably impatient, but he said, "There aren't many left who care what happens to her. I'd like her to know I care." This is a man who said to his 19-year-old son, "There is no foundation like the rock of honesty and fairness, and when you begin to build your life upon that rock, with the cement of the faith in God that you have, then you have a real start." This is not a man who could carelessly send other people's sons to war. And that is the issue of this campaign that makes all of the other problems I have discussed academic, unless we realize that we are in a war that must be won.

Those who would trade our freedom for the soup kitchen of the welfare state have told us that they have a utopian solution of peace without victory. They call their policy "accommodation." And they say if we only avoid any direct confrontation with the enemy, he will forget his evil ways and learn to love us. All who oppose them are indicted as warmongers. They say we offer simple answers to complex problems. Well, perhaps there is a simple answer--not an easy answer--but simple.

If you and I have the courage to tell our elected officials that we want our national policy based upon what we know in our hearts is morally right. We cannot buy our security, our freedom from the threat of the bomb by committing an immorality so great as saying to a billion now in slavery behind the Iron Curtain, "Give up your dreams of freedom because to save our own skin, we are willing to make a deal with your slave masters." Alexander Hamilton said, "A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one." Let's set the record straight. There is no argument over the choice between peace and war, but there is only one guaranteed way you can have peace--and you can have it in the next second--surrender.

Admittedly there is a risk in any course we follow other than this, but every lesson in history tells us that the greater risk lies in appeasement, and this is the specter our well-meaning liberal friends refuse to face--that their policy of accommodation is appeasement, and it gives no choice between peace and war, only between fight and surrender. If we continue to accommodate, continue to back and retreat, eventually we have to face the final demand--the ultimatum. And what then? When Nikita Khrushchev has told his people he knows what our answer will be? He has told them that we are retreating under the pressure of the Cold War, and someday when the time comes to deliver the ultimatum, our surrender will be voluntary because by that time we will have weakened from within spiritually, morally, and economically. He believes this because from our side he has heard voices pleading for "peace at any price" or "better Red than dead," or as one commentator put it, he would rather "live on his knees than die on his feet." And therein lies the road to war, because those voices don't speak for the rest of us. You and I know and do not believe that life is so dear and peace so sweet as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery. If nothing in life is worth dying for, when did this begin--just in the face of this enemy? Or should Moses have told the children of Israel to live in slavery under the pharaohs? Should Christ have refused the cross? Should the patriots at Concord Bridge have thrown down their guns and refused to fire the shot heard 'round the world? The martyrs of history were not fools, and our honored dead who gave their lives to stop the advance of the Nazis didn't die in vain. Where, then, is the road to peace? Well, it's a simple answer after all.

You and I have the courage to say to our enemies, "There is a price we will not pay." There is a point beyond which they must not advance. This is the meaning in the phrase of Barry Goldwater's "peace through strength." Winston Churchill said that "the destiny of man is not measured by material computation. When great forces are on the move in the world, we learn we are spirits--not animals." And he said, "There is something going on in time and space, and beyond time and space, which, whether we like it or not, spells duty."

You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on Earth, or we will sentence them to take the last step into a thousand years of darkness.

We will keep in mind and remember that Barry Goldwater has faith in us. He has faith that you and I have the ability and the dignity and the right to make our own decisions and determine our own destiny.

Thank you very much.




 

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Saturday, January 18, 2014

Amazon Rainforest and Weather in the U.S.


 

For decades loggers and ranchers have been clearing land in the Amazon rain forest and the Brazilian government has been carving it up with roads. As a result the forest has begun to dieback, which means the area of lush, green, wet tropical forest has begun to shrink.

 

Rain forests are always pretty wet, but they have dry seasons, and those dry seasons turn out to be a limiting factor on the survival of the plants and animals. As loggers reduce the number of trees that produce moisture to feed the gathering rains, the drier the dry seasons get and the longer they last. Lately dry seasons in the Amazon have gotten more severe and have put a crimp on the survival of many of the trees that form the forest canopy, which is the backbone of the rain-forest ecosystem.

 

As the dry season continues to lengthen, the plants draw more and more water from the soil, which eventually begins to dry out. The trees get stressed and begin to die. There is more fodder on the forest floor for wildfires. We saw this during the estimated twelve thousand wildfires that occurred in the Amazon during the drought of 2010. As the forest loses more and more trees, it loses its ability to feed the weather patterns with warm, moist air.

 

The tipping point comes when we can no longer stop this trend, and the rain forest trees reach a critical point where the entire region turns into something else entirely---something other than rain forest. What would that be, maybe a drier, deciduous forest, with a whole different set of flora? Or possibly the rain forest will turn into an open savanna, with mainly grasslands and sparse trees. Whichever state the Amazon flips into, it would be drier.

 

Scientists have known from research done in the 1980s and 1990s that the Amazon has a big effect not only on local climate but also on circulation patterns that reach far and wide. The Amazon is basically a big spot of wet tropics. Knock out the trees and lose that moist air, and the regional circulation pattern changes as well.

 

Air circulation is complex, but one basic fact of moisture is simple to understand; take moisture out of one part of circulation, and you increase it somewhere else. The Amazon supplies big masses of warm, moist air, moving upwards. Take that out of the map and replace it with a dry land surface and you're weakening the current flow pattern.

 

When you think about having to map out all the movng air on the planet in such a way, with land masses getting in the way and altering where the flow goes, and add in a jet stream, and storm systems, you begin to get a feeling for how interconnected the whole thing is.

 

What many scientists fear is a complete die-off of the forests and, in their place, new grasslands or praire.

 

In research meant to highlight how the destruction of the Amazon rainforest could affect climate elsewhere, Princeton University-led researchers report that the total deforestation of the Amazon may significantly reduce rain and snowfall in the western United States, resulting in water and food shortages, and a greater risk of forest fires.

An Amazon stripped bare could mean 20 percent less rain for the coastal Northwest and a 50 percent reduction in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a crucial source of water for cities and farms in California. Previous research has shown that deforestation will likely produce dry air over the Amazon. Using high-resolution climate simulations, the researchers found that the atmosphere's normal weather-moving mechanics would create a ripple effect that would move that dry air directly over the western United States from December to February.

The rainforest serves as the source of one-fifth of all fresh water on the planet. Water condensation, evaporation, and transpiration over the Amazon are key drivers of the global atmospheric circulation, affecting precipitation across much of the Northern Hemisphere. Recent climate models indicate that deforestation has also had the effect of reducing precipitation as far afield as the lower Midwest of the United States.

Through an extraordinary process, recently unravelled by climatologists in the United States, Brazil and Britain, we now know that what falls as rain over the Amazon Basin is paralleled, three to four months later, in rain falling over the US corn belt during its spring and summer. 'Teleconnection' is the name given to the process that transfers energy and rain to the United States from Amazonia. Relatively slow-moving moist masses of air, taking some months to complete their journey, seek conduits in the atmospheric circulation system, pushing their way through mass-circulation systems such as the Hadley Cell and the high flying Easterlies. These waves of Amazonian air, fuelled by the water vapour they carry, then release their rain en route over the corn-belt regions of the US.


Let the forest wither away, or just cut it and burn it down, and the US as well as the world will suffer like no-one had ever imagined they would.

 

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Climate-Be Humbler before the Facts

The short-term climatic future is relatively easy to predict. If warming continues on its present trajectory, growing seasons in Europe will lengthen, vineyards will again be established in central England, and farms will be cleared closer to the Arctic Circle. Northern Europe and much of North America may prosper from the warmth, but southern Europe, much of tropical Africa, and Central and South America will suffer more frequent water shortages and greater heat, as well as diminished agricultural capacity. Confrontations over water rights will flare in countries like Egypt, which depend on river flow from across national borders. People will adapt as they always have, but drier tropical regions with at least 400 million people subsisting in overpopulated marginal environments will make that adaptation difficult.

 

 

What of the longer term, if global warming accelerates? Sufficient reserves of fossil fuel exist to cause a continued growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels well into the twenty-second century. If this growth continues unchecked, the climate changes on earth will probably be very large indeed and extremely unpredictable. But many scientific uncertainties remain. Recently, James Hansen and a group of his colleagues have argued that the rapid warming of recent decades has in fact been driven mainly by non-CO, gases such as chlorofluorocarbons. Fossil fuel burning C02 and aerosols have both positive and negative climatic forcing effects, which tend to cancel each other out. Hansen and his team point out that the growth rate of non-CO, gases has declined over the past decade and could be reduced even further. This, combined with a slowing of black carbon and C0, emissions, could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming. 18 Much more research is needed to confirm this hypothesis,

 

 

Optimists assume that we will adapt comfortably. We humans do have a striking ability to adapt to changing environmental circumstances at the local level. Witness the agricultural revolution in Flanders, the Low Countries, then Britain during the climatically unpredictable sixteenth and eighteenth centuries.

 

 

Yet optimism fades in the face of demographic reality. Six billion of us now inhabit earth, with hundreds of millions still subsisting from harvest to harvest, from rainy season to rainy season, just as many European peasants once did. For Europe and North America, with their industrial-scale agriculture and elaborate infrastructures for moving food over long distances, famine is remote. But subsistence farmers on other continents still live with the constant threat of hunger. As I write this, more than 2 million cattle herders in northeast Africa face starvation because of severe drought. Such numbers are hard for us to comprehend in the prosperous West. They will become still harder to comprehend if global temperatures rise far above present levels, when rising seas inundate densely populated coastal plains and force millions of people to resettle inland, or far more severe droughts settle over the Sahel and the less well watered parts of the world? I have avoided discussing wars in this book-it would be simplistic to say that wars or other complex political events were caused by climatic changebut it's implausible to suppose that famines and massive dislocations of poor populations will be unaccompanied by civil unrest and disobedience. We can only imagine the potential death toll in an era when climatic swings may be faster, more extreme, and completely unpredictable because of human interference with the atmosphere. The French Revolution or the Irish potato famine pale into insignificance.

 

 

Even if the present warming is entirely of natural origin, greenhouse warming in the future could be accentuated by fossil fuels. We would be rash to ignore even theoretical scenarios, for we and our descendants are navigating uncharted climatic waters. In that respect we are no different from medieval farmers or eighteenth-century peasants, who took the weather as it came. Today we can forecast the weather and model climatic change, but globally we are still as vulnerable to climate as were those who endured the famine of 1315 or the great storms of the Spanish Armada, simply because there are so many of us and we are so closely linked, environmentally, economically, and politically. Fortunately, we now have, or will shortly have, the scientific data that document the full extent of the danger. We also know what has to be done, and have many of the tools to make significant changes. But to implement countermeasures to reduce geenhouse gasses and minimize the impact of climatic extremes on an increasingly crowded world community will require a new altruism, and a desire to work for the global rather than the national good, for the welfare of our grandchildren and geat-grandchildren rather than to satisfy short-term, often petty, goals. Political bickering, selfish national interests and the intense lobbying of international business have so far militated against broad agreement as to the path ahead.

 

 

Over a century ago, Victorian biologist Thomas Huxley urged us to be "humble before the facts." The facts stare us in the face, yet we do not display sufficient humility. As British diplomat Sir Crispin Tickell recently remarked: "Mostly we know what to do but we lack the will to do it." The vicissitudes of the Little Ice Age remind us of our vulnerability  again and again. In a new climatic era, we would be wise to learn from the climatic lessons of history.

 

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Rich Get Richer

I read an article by a man from Finland.  He wrote they had rich people in Finland, but there is a level at which they would become embarrassed.

 

In the United States CEOs of large corporations make over 260 times more than the average American worker. In many other countries everybody wants to be rich, but there is a limit. You cannot become a billionaire stepping over children sleeping in the street. That is not what this country is supposed to be about. Enough should be enough.

 

In 2007, the top 1 percent earned 23.5 percent of all income. During the 1970s it was about 8 percent and in the 1990s it was around 16 percent. The people at the top are getting a bigger and bigger chunk of all income. We hear about the top 1 percent. The top one-tenth of 1 percent took in 11 percent of total income in 2007.

 

The last time that type of income disparity took place was in 1928. Remember 1929.

 

If working people, the vast majority of the people, do not have the income to spend money to buy products and goods and services, jobs will not be created. If all the of the money or a big chunk of the money ends up with a few people on top, there is a limit to how many limousines you can have. When so few have so much, it is not only a moral issue, it is also an economic issue.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

 

Benghazi

These shootings cannot be prevented because we do not understand what security requires. Much like the locks on the doors of our houses our security only stops people willing to be stopped and annoys those who feel compelled to go along with it.

Security requires electric fences topped razor wire surrounding the entire facility and multiple armed guards inside and outside as well as on the roof of all buildings positioned far enough apart so they cannot be neutralized as a group with weapons ready as well as attack dogs free within the fence. Security requires the protected live in a prison. No matter we are not ready to do that. We live in a free society and citizens have the right to own and carry weapons.

In the 70s our company had NCR computers. On occasion I would go to the NCR manufacturing location. I was given a security card similar to a hotel room card that I scanned to go through a door. The card controlled which door I could pass through, which direction I was allowed to go, in or out and how many people, if any, could go with me and if I could take anything electronic or metal with me. That was security.

Imagine if the location of this recent shooting was located in a combat zone? Mass shooting on a military reservation shows these people need to be on a ship in the middle of an ocean somewhere. They might be safe there except from each other. On the other hand this may put some light on Benghazi.


Creation of the Middle Class

Henry Ford pioneered the assembly line. In 1912 it took Ford 1,260 man-hours to produce a Model T.  When the company adopted the electrified assembly light it brought a big leap in industrial productivity. In 1914 it took 617 man-hours. As the line's operation was fine tuned by 1925 it took 228 man-hours.  

Ford also led the way to boosting blue collar wages. One day Ford announced he would double workers' pay---to five dollars a day---across the board. He saw the higher wages were necessary to convince large numbers of men to take factory jobs that had become numbingly tedious---to discourage them from quitting those jobs. Workers would train, become bored and quit. Continual training was expensive to the company. In response to the increase 15,000 workers applied for 3,000 open slots. Other factory owners, with no options also raised wages.

As factory jobs came to require less skill, they began to pay higher wages. And that helped set in motion one of the most important social developments of the century: the creation of a vast, prosperous American middle class.

 

Lords of Finance

In the book "Lords of  Finance", following WWI while Germany was negotiating the reparation demands its economy floundered. There was a series of weak governments which collectively proved unable to control the country's finances that causes of which were for the most part self –inflicted. To make the reparation payments Germany resorted to printing money. Know any other countries that do that?

In 1914 the mark stood at 4.2 to the dollar worth a little under 24 cents. By the beginning of 1920 after the full effects of the war finance had worked its way through the system there were 65 marks per dollar worth around 1.5 cents and prices were nine times as much as they were in 1914. Over the next eighteen months the mark stabilized. Foreign private speculators, betting the mark had fallen too far moved some $2 billion into the country.  Germany was viewed, before the war, as the epitome of discipline, orderliness, and organization. It was inconceivable it would give up on restoring order.

A series of events in 1921 resulted in the public losing confidence that Germany's problems were soluble and abandoned the mark. Foreign speculators bailed, losing most of the $2 billion they had pumped into the economy. 

On June 24, 1922 the man recognized as architect of the economy was murdered, panic set in. Prices rose fortyfold during 1922 pushing the mark from 190 per dollar to 7,600 per dollar.

Early in 1923 Germany defaulted on some reparation payments and the budget deficit almost doubled to around $1.5 billion. To finance the shortfall Germany printed ever-increasing amounts of worthless paper marks. In 1922 around 1 trillion marks of additional currency were distributed, In the first six months of 1923, 17 trillion marks were printed.

It took 133 printing works with 1,783 machines and 30 paper mills. Over the next few months Germany's economy destructed. By August 1923, a dollar was worth 620,000 marks and by early November 1923, 630 billion.

A kilo of butter cost 250 billion marks, a kilo of bacon 180 billion, a ride on a street car, which before the war cost 1 mark now cost 15 billion.  Currency was available in denominations of up to 100 billion marks and were carried around in bags, in wheelbarrows, in laundry baskets and hampers and in baby carriages.

In the last three weeks in October prices doubled every couple of days and rose ten thousandfold. In the time it took to drink a cup of coffee in a café the price might have doubled.  Money received at the beginning of the week lost nine-tenths of its buying power by the end of the week. 

Workers who were once paid weekly were paid daily and given a half-hour to go and buy something. They bought what they thought they would be able to barter.

On July 31, 2008 the Zimbabwean dollar reached 500 billion to the U.S. dollar. It can happen to us.

 

 

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Why it Matters....at least to me

 

Nature tracks the passage of time.  Trees form yearly rings on their trunks, we can determine the age of the tree by counting its rings. The oldest living trees on earth are said to be the six-thousand-year-old bristlecone pines found in the Sierra Nevada. The dead trees lying beside them are said to be almost twice as old. Similarly, lakebeds are said to accumulate sediments with seasonal variations: minerals in spring, pollen and plant material in summer and fall. This creates distinguishable annual layers on the bottom of lakes that can be counted, just like counting tree rings. Scientists have found lakebeds with layers as old as thirty-five-thousand years.

 

Seasonal ice rings in glaciers provide another example. Ice rings form through the accumulation of years of falling snow, and seasonal differences can be distinguished---such as increased dust and larger ice crystals in summer---that allow the age to be determined. Scientists have drilled ice cores deep into the glaciers and found ice that is 123,000 years old in Greenland and as old as 740,000 years in Antarctica.

 

Such dating methods are straightforward. Pull a cylindrical plug from a glacier and count the layers. The clarity is one of the reasons scientists react negatively to claims that the earth is less than ten thousand years old. They consider that an ice core with 500,000 seasonal summer layers of pollen can no more be ten thousand years old than a massive oak with two hundred annual rings can be two years old.

 

Some weeks back you asked why what we believe concerning the age of the universe matters: In the January 2010 issue of Smithsonian magazine there is an article about the Dead Sea scrolls. The article says the thousands of tourists who flock to Qumran each year, where the scrolls were discovered, are told the site was once home to a Jewish sect called the Essences, who devoted their lives to writing and preserving sacred texts. An Israeli archaeologist disagrees, and says the settlement was originally a small fort that was later converted into a pottery factory to serve nearby towns. Which story sounds better to the tourists? Do they want to know the truth or do they want to continue to believe what they want to believe even if it might be false? Do we?

 

Consider the history of the United States. Do you want to know how things really were or are you comfortable with someone's story?

 


John Jenkins
865-803-8179  cell
Gatlinburg, TN




Email: jrjenki@gmail.com
Blogs: http://littlepigeon.blogspot.com/
         http://alumcave.blogspot.com/


"It is, in the end, cheaper to feed the whole flock for a year than to fight them for a week. 


---1850 Annual Report of the Commissioner of Indian Affairs


"If the tale of the poor wretches...could be impartially related, it would exhibit  a picture of cruelty, injustice, and horror scarcely surpassed by that of the Peruvians in the time of Pizarro. 


---1852 Gen. E. D. Townsend in his California Diary of the Indians facing pressure from the 1849 gold rush

Wednesday, October 02, 2013

A Book to be Considered

The first government shutdown occurred in 1976 during the Ford Administration.

 

In the 37 years since there have been 17 other shutdowns including the current one. It took 200 hundred years before Congress began using government shutdown as a tool and now it is common practice and for most of us, they go unnoticed. The Stock Market doesn't care either. 

 

A book worth everyone's time is:

 

The Spirit of Compromise: Why Governing Demands It and Campaigning Undermines It


Amy Gutmann & Dennis Thompson

 


John Jenkins
865-803-8179  cell
Gatlinburg, TN




Email: jrjenki@gmail.com
Blogs: http://littlepigeon.blogspot.com/
         http://alumcave.blogspot.com/


"Religious belief can guide one in life or strengthen one at the approach of death, but unless it is true it can do neither of these things and so would amount to no more than an illusionary exercise in comforting fantasy."  


---John Polkinghorne

Monday, September 30, 2013

A Failed Congress

You and your fellow members of Congress are an embarrassment to the citizens of the United States and a joke to the world. You were elected to do job part of which is to work with the Executive Branch to create a budget for the Federal Government and you have failed to do for several years. You all should be fired. Blackmail is illegal, extortion is illegal but you and your fellow members of Congress appear to think it is the way to do you job. "Shit or get off the pot" or "lead, follow or get out of the way."

 

The Affordable Care Act is the law of the land. Due to your refusing to get involved and do your job, the Democrats went without you. What is known as Obamacare was a Republican idea, Richard Nixon, supported by a Republican President, George43, implemented in Massachusetts by a Republican governor. The only reason Republicans are against it is President Obama is for it. If Obama was against it you would be for it and the Democrats would be against it. You are like children. Obama is President, the citizens have spoken, get over it.

 

You and your fellow members of Congress have approved the spending you are now attempting to blame Obama for but it will not work. You are killing the economy, destroying the savings of your constituents, and ruining our country's reputation around the world.

 

If I had the authority I would demand your resignation to be on my desk first thing tomorrow. The only other thing I can think of is to vote Democratic in the next elections. Maybe if the House and the Senate are controlled by the same party this kind of behavior will stop.

Friday, September 20, 2013

Ideological Amplification

When researchers studied various political blogs looking at patterns of linking they discovered a sharp and unmistakable division between the conservative and liberal camps.  91% of the links originating within either the conservative or liberal community stay within that community. The two groups have different lists of favorite news sources, people and topics to discuss with only occasional overlaps.

 

The blogs researchers found that the vast majority of readers tend to stay within the bounds of either the liberal or the conservative sphere. Liberals listen almost exclusively to other liberals, and conservatives tend almost exclusively to other conservatives.

 

In 2005 a group of researchers assembled sixty-three Coloradans to discuss three controversial issues: same sex marriage, affirmative action, and global warming. About half the participants were conservatives from Colorado Springs and the other half liberals living in Boulder.  After the participants completed, in private, questionnaires about their personal views on the three topics they were split into ten groups---five conservative and five liberal. Each group spent time discussing the issues with the goal of reaching a consensus on each one. After the discussion, the participant again filled out questionnaires.

 

The results showed the deliberations among like-minded people produced what researchers call "ideological amplification." People's views became more extreme and more entrenched.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Putin's Op-Ed

You may not trust him, you may not believe him but what specifically does Putin say in his op-ed that as one of our members of congress says "makes you want to vomit?"

 

Exceptional: not typical; unusual, uncommon, abnormal, atypical, extraordinary, rare, unprecedented, unexpected, surprising.

Exceptionalism: the condition of being different from the norm; a theory expounding the exceptionalism especially of a nation or region; the perception that a country, society, institution, movement, or time period is unusual or extraordinary in some way and thus does not need to conform to normal rules or general principles. ...

What people does not believe in their own exceptionalism?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?ref=opinion&_r=0 


My guess is you trust Putin as much as the Russian people trust Obama.

Responses from various members of our government are great examples of ideological amplification.


Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Hurrah!! for Great Britain

Aren't we glad England showed the United States how countries work together? First you get the citizens on your side, second you get the Congress next your friends then your enemies. If Obama and Putin had not talked the United States would be in another unending war with a nothing-country in the Middle East. If the Bushes would have followed that roadmap thousands of American Citizens as well as hundreds of thousands or Iraqis and Afghans would be alive and well today.

Monday, September 09, 2013

Email sent to Roe, Corker, Alexander

As anyone knows who watches the various cable networks broadcasting trials knowing something is different than proving it.  The president may "know" the Syrian government used chemical weapons but can he "prove" it? Do you remember how George Bush 43 "knew" Iraq had WMDs but after causing the deaths of thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis it was "proven" that what Bush "knew" was false.  

Syria did not sign the treaty banning chemical weapons which permits them to use them as they like. Otherwise banning something would take the opinion of just one country. The fear of chemical weapons is if they were to be used on the battle field. Do we want another country attacking us because they disagree with our use of the death penalty?

Remember the Tet Offensive in 1968? The enemy had capabilities far beyond our greatest dreams. While Congress looked at the budget the enemy became stronger.

The "rebels" or "Free Syrian Army" have a brigade calling itself "Osama bin Laden", which belongs to the "Hawks of Damascus" Battalion.

Our government has been claiming the FSA is comprised of somewhat "secular" people and that jihadists have only joined the fight but they are not part of the FSA. Well, you cannot get more al-Qaeda'ish than calling a brigade "Osama bin Laden".

VOTE NO!!!!! ON ANY INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA. THAT IS VOTE NO!!!!!!!

Friday, September 06, 2013

Letter Sent to Alexander, Corker and Roe

Vote "NO!!!" on any action in or to Syria. The guarantee of no boots on the ground in combat capacity means nothing. You will put military in Syria as advisors or as some other euphemism, they will be killed, and we will invade. Another war.

 

Concerning the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction: Iran signed it, Israel and Syria did not. Can we hold a country to a treaty they did not sign? If we do we are taking away the individual sovereignty of all other countries. We are saying if we want it this way you have no choice.

 

On the subject of WMD's the treaty prohibits the stockpiling of such weapons which includes our nuclear arsenal. Since we are violators who are we to judge?

 

With the exception of a couple of Middle East countries we are the primary user of WMDs against civilians. The original concern was voiced in response to our carpet bombing of civilians in Germany. Are we really on the high road?

 

The United States does not become involved in the internal squabbles of every country. Vote NO!!!!! on any action in or to Syria.

Friday, June 21, 2013

Price of Gasoline

As we worry about the price of gasoline continues to go up we might consider that China passed the US as the largest auto manufacturing and consuming country in the world last year and China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently estimated that there will be over 200 million registered vehicles in the country in 2020.  In 2007 there were 247 million in the United States.

 

When do you think we can look forward to lower gasoline prices?

Friday, June 07, 2013

Tax not Insurance

When Francis Perkins and Paul Douglas had their plans for unemployment insurance and pensions for senior citizens in draft bill form Justice Harlan Stone gave her a tip. She was afraid any great social insurance system would be rejected by the court and expressed those concerns to Stone at a tea. Justice Stone told her not to worry and told her "the taxing power of the federal government is sufficient for everything she wanted and needed. If the Social Security Act was formulated as a tax, and not government insurance, it could get through.

 

Supporters of Obamacare might want to consider Justice Stone's advice.

Bill Cosby "I'm 83 and Tired"

 
 
 
 
I'm 83. Except for brief period in the 50's when I was doing my National
Service, I've worked hard since I was 17. Except for some serious
health challenges, I put in 50-hour weeks, and didn't call in sick in nearly
40 years. I made a reasonable salary, but I didn't inherit my job or my
income, and I worked to get where I am. Given the economy, it looks as
though retirement was a bad idea, and I'm tired. Very tired. 


I'm tired of being told that I have to "spread the wealth" to people who
don't have my work ethic. I'm tired of being told the government will take
the money I earned, by force if necessary, and give it to people too lazy
to earn it. 


I'm tired of being told that Islam is a "Religion of Peace," when every day I
can read dozens of stories of Muslim men killing their sisters, wives and
daughters for their family "honor"; of Muslims rioting over some slight
offense; of Muslims murdering Christian and Jews because they aren't
"believers"; of Muslims burning schools for girls; of Muslims stoning
teenage rape victims to death for "adultery"; of Muslims mutilating the
genitals of little girls; all in the name of Allah, because the Qur'an and
Shari'a law tells them to. 


I'm tired of being told that out of "tolerance for other cultures" we must let
Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries use our oil money to fund mosques
and madrassa Islamic schools to preach hate in Australia , New Zealand ,
UK , America and Canada , while no one from these countries are allowed to
fund a church, synagogue or religious school in Saudi Arabia or any other
Arab country to teach love and tolerance.. 


I'm tired of being told I must lower my living standard to fight global
warming, which no one is allowed to debate.

I'm tired of being told that drug addicts have a disease, and I must help
support and treat them, and pay for the damage they do. Did a giant germ
rush out of a dark alley, grab them, and stuff white powder up their noses
or stick a needle in their arm while they tried to fight it off?
 

I'm tired of hearing wealthy athletes, entertainers and politicians of all
parties talking about innocent mistakes, stupid mistakes or youthful
mistakes, when we all know they think their only mistake was getting
caught. I'm tired of people with a sense of entitlement, rich or poor. 


I'm really tired of people who don't take responsibility for their lives and
actions. I'm tired of hearing them blame the government, or discrimination
or big-whatever for their problems. 

I'm also tired and fed up with seeing young men and women in their teens and
early 20's be-deck them selves in tattoos and face studs, thereby making
themselves un-employable and claiming money from the Government. 


Yes,  I'm damn tired. But I'm also glad to be 83.. Because, mostly, I'm not
going to have to see the world these people are making. I'm just sorry for
my granddaughter and their children. Thank God I'm on the way out and not
on the way in. 



.

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Where to Look

The Boston bombers are from the Republic of Dagestan, a republic of Russia, which has been a scene of low-level Islamic insurgency, occasional outbreaks of separatism, ethnic tensions and terrorism since the 1990s. That is the environment the bombers came from. This does not justify what they did but it might help us understand where to look for future threats.

 

The area known as the Tigris-Euphrates Basin is losing water faster than any other place in the world except for northern India. From 2003 through 2009 an amount equal to the contents of the Dead Sea has disappeared.

 

As water levels drop tensions rise. In Iraq, the absence of a strong government, drought and shrinking aquifers have led to a number of assassinations of irrigation department officials and a re-emergence of clashes among clans which, are feared, could escalate into full scale armed conflicts.

 

In Syria, drought beginning in 2006 forced many farmers to leave their farms and migrate to urban centers.  Some political pundits believe the migration instigated the civil war. With the migration resulting in angry, unemployed men helped trigger a revolution in which 80,000 people have died.

 

Since 1975, Turkey's dam and hydropower construction has reduced water flow to Iraq by 80 percent and to Syria by 40 percent.

 

Wars over water may replace wars over oil.

 

The United States may have to become more sensitive to problems in other countries that are taken for granted within our borders, at least for now.

 

 

Oil or Water

Water, the next war; the Tigris-Euphrates Basin is losing water faster than any other place in the world except for northern India. From 2003 through 2009 due to dwindling rainfall and poor water management policies an amount equal to the contents of the Dead Sea has disappeared.

 

As scientists watch dropping water levels political experts have observed rising tensions. In Iraq, the absence of a strong government, drought and shrinking aquifers have led to a number of assassinations of irrigation department officials and a re-emergence of clashes among clans which, are feared, could escalate into full scale armed conflicts.

 

In Syria, drought beginning in 2006 forced may farmers to leave their fields and migrate to urban centers.  Some political experts believe the migration instigated the civil war. With the migration resulting in angry, unemployed men helping to trigger a revolution in which 80,000 people have died.

 

Since 1975, Turkey's dam and hydropower construction has reduced water flow to Iraq by 80 percent and to Syria by 50 percent.

 

Wars over water may replace wars over oil.