Risk Analysis

A couple of days ago I read Take the Risk (Learning to Identify, Choose, and Live with Acceptable Risk) by Ben Carson MD. Carson writes about a simple risk analysis exercise he uses whenever he faces an uncertain situation. He says he thinks it can help anyone answer the questions: “When should I take a risk?” and “What should I risk?” He believes we consider only one risk-analysis question:What is the worst that can happen if we…

It seems like a good process to me so I thought I would pass it along.

• What is the best thing that can happen it I do this?
• What is the worst thing that can happen if I do this?
• What is the best thing that can happen if I don’t do this?
• What is the worst thing that can happen if I don’t do this?

He suggests answering: Who? What? When? Where? How? Why?, in no particular order, in the context of the four basic Best/Worst Analysis questions will sharpen the focus and refine the accuracy of any risk analysis process.

• Who? (would be most affected)
• What? (does one need to know the make a decision)
• Where? (are you going? (your goals), are you now (your skills, your abilities, your thinking, and your attitudes) will you start (your preparation)
• When? (often the timing of a Best/Worst Analysis affects your conclusion
• How? (plan of action)
• Why? (responding to any risk requires identifying your motives, which involves personal values)

As Forrest Gump said, “And that’s all I have too say about that.”