Consider the turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief it is general rule of life to be fed everyday by friendly members of the human race "looking our for its best interests" as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.
How can we know the future, given knowledge of the past; or, more generally, how can we figure out properties of the (infinite) unknown based on the (finite) known? What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps, but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that "little less" that may make all the difference.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
No comments:
Post a Comment